The EU is preparing to expand its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) to include municipal waste incineration. Burning plastics could soon cost 2–3 times more than today — accelerating the shift toward circular and climate-smart solutions.

For every kilogram of plastic incinerated, 2.3–2.9 kg of CO₂ is released. If ETS prices reach €100/tonne, incinerating plastic could add over €250 per tonne in carbon costs alone. With prices ranging up to €150/t, the total cost may exceed €300/t — dramatically increasing the cost of burning plastic.

Some EU member states, including Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands, already apply ETS or national carbon pricing to incineration. These precedents show that such policy is feasible and impactful. The European Commission’s own analysis supports this step, and a majority of public consultation feedback favors the inclusion of incinerators under the EU ETS by 2026.

This marks a turning point: incineration becomes less economically attractive, while circular alternatives — especially chemical recycling — become more competitive. Unlike mechanical recycling, which is limited by contamination and purity requirements, chemical recycling can process hard-to-recycle plastics and turn them into certified pyrolysis oil. This oil can be used to produce new plastics, even for food-grade applications.

At Resiclo, we are building modular chemical recycling plants that offer a scalable solution for this shift. Our solution turns hard-to-recycle plastics into certified circular oil, enabling municipalities and companies to reduce emissions and avoid rising incineration costs.

Further reading & sources

CE Delft & Zero Waste Europe (June 2025) – Study for Cost and Emissions Impact of Including Incinerators in EU ETS
In-depth analysis of CO₂ emissions from plastic incineration and the financial effects of including it in the EU ETS. Includes policy modelling and feasibility for EU-wide rollout.  View full study (PDF)

Joint NGO Call: Add Waste Incineration & Landfilling to EU ETS (June 2025)
NGOs, businesses, and associations call on the EU to include incineration and landfilling in the ETS. The call supports the ongoing consultation (open until 8 July 2025) and anticipates the Commission’s report due by July 2026.   Joint letter (PDF).  Background article from Carbon Market Watch.